Harem-love statistics in anime
Laying a wager if Nayuki finally snags Yuiichi this Kanon remake? Staking your anime dvd collection that Riko (Gift~ Eternal Rainbow) gets to bed Onii-chan this season? Hold your horses. Here's a Stripey-patented tool to increase your odds. Using a colossal sample population of 2000 20 animes, I have here some statistics (right down to the hairline precision of 2 decimal places) to aid you on your gamble.
Below is a table of some 20 romance/harem series since 1999. 8 character archetypes have been organised and the love interests in every series, categorised. Do note that when a character has one more more traits of the classification, the more definitive component would be assigned.
Warning - Do not click on the enlarged figure should you not want to be spoiled on the winning girls for the various series.
Cousin - Duh. A relative. Classic cousin characters include Elise (Canvas2) and Sakura (Da Capo)
Dokyuusei - A classmate of your level yet not particularly close. Excludes childhood/close friends
Fushigi na shoujo - Girls that myteriously appear in protagonists lives.
Imouto - The younger sister, recognised socially as such. Includes but not limited to foster/half sisters.
Kouhai/imouto-type - The underclassman or the younger personality in the show. Excludes sisters
Osananjimi - Childhood friend. Known the protagonist since young and remains close til now
Returning promised one - Ex-childhood friend who made a promise with protagonist prior to leaving only to return now
Senpai/Onee-type - The upperclassman or older personalities in the series. Excludes sisters
Not canonical I know. But it serves my purposes. 
The winning girl (or the one with implied victory) has her name highlighted in yellow. The graph below charts the character types across anime productions that have come out of the vicious harem/love foray victorious.
What this really means is that anime studios have been pushing the promised-one persona for one too many wins. Kouhai-types need MORE LOVE! I was rather shocked to find that the odds of the winning girl being the sister is just slight below the childhood friend. I have to relook at my theory of childhood friend being the favoured class in harems
This plot depicts the success rates of a character type within its group. (for example, if a kouhai character appears in the romantic challenge, her odds of winning would be zero.) A stunning revelation, that the promised-one has a 100% hit rate. Yes, chances are if you had made a pact with the protagonist when young and are NOT a cousin figure. You win! Of course you need to leave first THEN return and claim your prize. I'm also pleasantly surprised at sisters odds of snagging their nii-sans. Unfortunately this class seem particularly weak to princessly challenges (See how Maika and Akiha fall to Ayumi and Arcueid respective). Sigh, it's true that Mai stands absolutely no chance against Feena. Here's hoping Nanaly beats Yuffie in Code Geass to break this cursed counter.
So what have I learnt from this exercise?
1) Mina (Tokimeki Memorial) has 0% of getting Riku
2) Nayuki (Kanon) has 16.67% of beating Ayu (who incidentally has 100% chance of snagging Yuiichi)
3) Haruhi (Happiness) has 100% stake on Yuuma as Feena has on Tatsuya
4) Riko (Gift~Eternal Rainbow) has 37.5% chance of bedding onii-chan.
5) That anime graph work is t3h suxxor and I'm so not doing this again. LOL!
Frankly, these figures go against common sense. But if I can swallow the numbers published by the local propaganda machine churned out by their elite masters, I can believe this.
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November 18th, 2006 - 20:19
whoa, I havent read everything yet. But it looks interesting.
Then again, I wonder if there’s that possibility that the studios are pushing this type of (promised) series as one of their 5 year plans, lol.
November 19th, 2006 - 02:21
@Xellos …. since the link is only talking about children depicted “under 13″ … that really doesn’t affect the depiction of fictional characters aged 13-16 (which the “lolita” complex is traditionally associated with) Even for fictional characters under 13, the proposed legislation in Japan pertains to sexually focused materials rather than just all depictions of young children. Ichigo Masimaru is quite safe (as is Nanoha). Iroha, despite her seductive activities, is safe because that character is 15. Of course, I’m analyzing it from the perspective of Japanese law and custom…. in Canada and some other places you’re all doomed
November 20th, 2006 - 08:20
Xellos^_- / vexx : Thanks for the link Xellos.
I’m sure the upstanding readers of HnTD need not worry about loliconism at all. XD Moreover as vexx so rightly point out most legislative efforts now concentrate on sexploitation of real children. As long as watching Nanoha StrikerS in Singapore does not get me busted, I’m good. 
crimson: hehe then the 5 yr plan has overstayed its welcome. We demand more kouhai wins (ala Sakura of Fate/Stay night) XD
November 27th, 2006 - 17:14
Good grief. H-game based animes should not count if there wasn’t a “best ending” path in the game to one character only. In those games often the first character encountered is the returning promised one or imouto.
Also disagree with rating Suzumiya Haruhi as dokyuusei rather than fushigina shoujo; she was a transfer student at the start of the story IIRC.
November 30th, 2006 - 21:51
just a factoid addition :
Suzumiya Haruhi is not a transfer student — she’s a First Year high school student like Kyon and the other members of their class (check the room signage and the dialog). Itsuki is the only “transfer student” mentioned in the series. And of course, Asakura “transfers out” after her little incident with Kyon. The discussions about Suzumiya’s antics at her previous school — are referring to her Middle School that she and Kyon’s mouthy friend graduated from.
December 6th, 2006 - 08:23
Usually the first on they blush to is the one he choses, excluding DNAngel
December 26th, 2006 - 15:03
Apologies for the late comment. First, I don’t think you can really include Haruhi in the sample, simply because nobody has really ‘won’ as of yet. The story – both its novel and anime incarnations – hasn’t been concluded, and hence whilst it’s unlikely that Haruhi is going to be overtaken by Yuki or Mikuru, it’s still possible.
On an unrelated note, add Ukyo Kuonji from Ranma 1/2 to the short list of Promised Ones unable to snag the protagonist.